On Wealth Effects of Fed Policies: Housing Is Likely The Bright Spot
We’ve mentioned before the rapidly waning effect of the Fed policies. October was a good proof of that, with the S&P 500 index down about 2% (top chart). The stock market is no doubt part of the wealth effect the Fed was trying to create, but home prices, which represent the bulk of the average person’s net worth, and personal income should also be considered a big part of the wealth effect.
As shown below, the stock market wealth effect has so far been the most direct and pronounced effect. But it has been wearing off, with the subsequent rally after each Fed stimulus weaker than the previous one.
The housing wealth effect, proxied by the Case/Shiller 20-City House Price Index year over year change, has just started to have an impact. This effect is probably the most promising one going forward.
Until recently, banks were very slow in passing on lower interest rates to home buyers/owners. The problem was, although the demand for mortgages got stronger, banks were unwilling to loosen lending standards, according to Senior Loan Officers Survey (top chart, next page). However, we believe this is now changing. QE3 has widened the gap between the rates homeowners get and what banks can get in the secondary market. This provides a much bigger cushion (spread) for the banks, so they can take more risk by extending loans to people with less than perfect credit scores. This will be a boon for the housing market going forward.
The personal income wealth effect is the most disappointing. The bottom clip of the previous chart shows very anemic growth in Per Capita Disposable Income, and it seems to be stalling again.
The stock market and housing are not what generate income for an average person. Jobs do. As we mentioned in our last report, QE receives a failing grade for boosting employment. We think the link between QE and job and income growth is obscure at best.
The main issue is not the supply of credit to businesses, but the macro-economic uncertainties both here and abroad. This includes the fiscal cliff and tax regime changes within the U.S., as well as the external risks stemming from the Euro-zone and emerging countries such as China.
The uncertainties have dampened the demand for credit by businesses, which is reflected in the Senior Loan Officers Survey shown on the right. Although lending standards have been loosened and credit spreads have come down, demand for C&I loans by large businesses has deteriorated recently. The uncertainties are preventing businesses from opening up their checkbooks to spend and create new jobs. We don’t expect this to change quickly as long as these uncertainties persist.
Visit www.leutholdfunds.com for further information and research.
The Leuthold Group, LLC provides research to institutional investors. It is also a registered investment advisor that uses its own re- search, along with other data, in making investment decisions for its managed accounts. As a result, The Leuthold Group, LLC may have executed transactions for its managed accounts in securities mentioned prior to this publication.
The information contained in The Leuthold Group, LLC research is not, without additional data and analysis, sufficient to form the basis of an investment decision regarding any one security. The research reflects The Leuthold Group, LLC’s views as of the date of publication, which are subject to change without notice. The Leuthold Group, LLC does not undertake to give notice of any change in its views regarding a particular industry prior to publication of their next research report covering that industry in the normal course of business. The Leuthold Group, LLC may make investment decisions for its managed accounts that are inconsistent with, or contrary to, the views expressed in current Leuthold Group, LLC reports.
As with any investment, there can be no assurance that any of the funds’ investment objectives will be achieved or that an investor will not lose a portion or all of his or her investment in a fund. Limited Partnerships may offer limited liquidity, may engage in speculative investment practices, may offer limited valuation information to investors and will not be registered. A prospective investor should consult its own tax advisor regarding tax consequences of an investment in a fund.
This report does not constitute an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy a security. Any offer of solicitation for Limited Partnerships must be made only by means of a delivery of a definitive private offering memorandum. The Partnership’s performance data have not been compiled, reviewed or audited by an independent accountant, and data for recent periods may be adjusted as a result of a subse- quent audit of the year of which those periods are a part.
Because the views expressed in Leuthold Group, LLC research relate to industry groups rather than individual securities, industry group ratings cannot be assumed to apply to each individual security within a group. Thus, if industry group “A” is ranked “Attractive,” The Leuthold Group, LLC may still decide to sell one or more of the component securities in group “A.”
Weeden Investors, L.P., Weeden & Co., L.P.'s parent company, owns 22% of Leuthold Group’s voting securities. An Executive Man- aging Director of Weeden & Co., L.P. is a member of The Leuthold Group, LLC board of directors.
Weeden & Co., L.P. makes a market in AAPL, ABCO, ALGT, ALXN, AMAT, AMKR, AMTD, AMZN, APKT, ARBA, ARUN, ATVI, AZPN, BIDU, BIIB, BRKS, CACC, CATM, CAVM, CELG, CERN, CHKP, CIEN, CLMT, COST, CRAY, CREE, CSCO, CSGP, DELL, DLLR, DLTR, EFII, EZPW, FFBC, FISV, FITB, FULT, GHDX, GPRO, HA, HBAN, HGSI, HMIN, IMAX, INTC, IPGP, IPHS, ISIL, JAZZ, JDSU, JKHY, KALU, LBTYA, LSTR, MAT, MDCO, MGLN, MSCC, MSFT, NFLX, NIHD, NTAP, NXTM, ONNN, OZRK, PACW, PDLI, PRXL, PSMT, QLGC, QSII, RVBD, SATS, SCHN, SCHW, SFLY, SINA, SLAB, SMCI, SNDK, SPLS, STLD, STX, SUSQ, TEVA, TQNT, TRMB, TTWO, UHAL, UMPQ, VMED, VOD, VPHM, VRTX, WBMD, WERN, WRLD and ZBRA.
Weeden & Co., L.P. Member FINRA, NASDAQ, and SIPC.