Submitted by Doug Ramsey on Mon, 04/18/2016 - 16:05
The rally since mid-February has progressed to the point where we see trouble afoot in both the strongest and weakest charts we can find. First, the handful of sectors and themes now at new all-time highs are hardly those usually associated with a full-blown “risk-on” scenario.
Submitted by Doug Ramsey on Thu, 07/30/2015 - 11:20
After suffering a two month, 7% setback from its 12-year peak in March, the U.S. Dollar Index has recovered about half that loss. We expect continued dollar strength over the next year as monetary policies in the rest of the developed world remain even looser than in the United States.
Submitted by Doug Ramsey on Thu, 03/19/2015 - 13:16
Earlier this year we discussed the possibility of a cyclical bear market erupting in 2015 or 2016, producing losses in the vicinity of 25-30%. Those levels straddle the median, postwar S&P 500 loss of 27.5%, but in the context of the last two decades, this does not look all that significant.
Submitted by Doug Ramsey on Tue, 02/17/2015 - 10:19
Economically defensive stocks outperformed for 2014 and held their grip in January 2015. This action is consistent with our view that the bull market is an aged, overvalued one that has begun a final "distribution" process.
Submitted by Doug Ramsey on Mon, 12/29/2014 - 00:00
Historically, Small Caps have, on average, outperformed Large Caps during periods of sustained U.S. dollar strength. However, that isn't happening in the current cycle, and the late 1990s also stand out as a costly counter-example.